Volos NFC 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Championship Round - 9 as Volos NFC welcome PAOK to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 1D 8L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, PAOK have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Volos NFC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 2–4 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
PAOK trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 48% versus PAOK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 57% | PAOK 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.88 xG and PAOK 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.943 / defence 1.351 | PAOK attack 1.181 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. PAOK's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 17% | Draw 32% | PAOK 51%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 5.88 | Draw 3.12 | PAOK 1.96. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Volos NFC 30% | PAOK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 17% | Draw 32% | PAOK 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Volos NFC 0.88 / PAOK 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.943 / def 1.351 | PAOK attack 1.181 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: PAOK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.60
PAOK xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs PAOK kick off?
Volos NFC vs PAOK kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Volos NFC 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Volos NFC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs PAOK part of?
Volos NFC vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 17% chance of winning, PAOK a 51% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Volos NFC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
Record (3 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 3W.
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.94x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
17%
5.78
32%
3.12
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.60
PAOK xG
5.78
17%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
4%
28.56
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.60 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 21W 17D 29L from 67 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 35W 17D 15L across 67 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 11W 5D 17L from 33 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 14W 10D 9L across 33 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.64 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 21W 17D 29L in their last 67 games (1.19 PPG), while PAOK have gone 35W 17D 15L in their last 67 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.15 PPG; PAOK away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, PAOK in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and PAOK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
0
Draws
8
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, PAOK have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 42%, PAOK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Volos NFC) and 46% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 39%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 46% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Volos NFC's recent games and 46% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and PAOK tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Volos NFC 0-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Championship Round - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.88 xG and PAOK 1.60 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.35 against PAOK attack 1.18 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 17% | Draw 32% | PAOK 51%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 57%, PAOK 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.