Volos NFC 1-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 55%, yet in-form Panserraikos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Volos NFC vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panserraikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off is Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Panserraikos have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 away fixtures (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Panserraikos are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Panserraikos trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 64% versus Panserraikos 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 54% | Panserraikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 2.04 xG and Panserraikos 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.900 / defence 1.304 | Panserraikos attack 0.780 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.154. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.467 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Panserraikos's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Volos NFC's defence rating of 1.304 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panserraikos's projected output up. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 37 games and Panserraikos's last 11.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 55% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 19%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.83 | Draw 3.75 | Panserraikos 5.32. The model has a clear lean to Volos NFC (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.04 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panserraikos (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 10 home games and Panserraikos's last 7 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 40% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 43% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 7 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 55% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Volos NFC 2.04 / Panserraikos 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.900 / def 1.304 | Panserraikos attack 0.780 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Panserraikos xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Volos NFC vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Volos NFC 1 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 7) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 55% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Volos NFC and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Volos NFC vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.90) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Volos NFC's last 37 games and Panserraikos's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.75
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.17
Panserraikos xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
2%
40.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Volos NFC vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.17 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 4D 6L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Panserraikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across their last 5 home games, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.40 points per game from their last 5 away games (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.27 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
Volos NFC (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Volos NFC
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Volos NFC vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panserraikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.80 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2025, when Volos NFC won Volos NFC 3-0 Panserraikos.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Volos NFC vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Volos NFC have won 4, Panserraikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Panserraikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 80%, Panserraikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Volos NFC and 60% for Panserraikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Volos NFC vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Volos NFC and Panserraikos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Volos NFC's games and 40% of Panserraikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Volos NFC and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Volos NFC's matches and 60% of Panserraikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 80% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Panserraikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panserraikos 1-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 2.04 xG and Panserraikos 1.17 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Panserraikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.90 / defence 1.30 against Panserraikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.47, drawn from 37/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 55% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 19%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 54%, Panserraikos 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Panserraikos arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.