Volos NFC 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41%, yet in-form OFI provide a compelling counter-argument — this Volos NFC vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadium plays host to Volos NFC versus OFI in Super League 1, Conference League Group - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadium, Volos NFC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadium than their overall form suggests.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, OFI are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, OFI in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Volos NFC 2W, OFI 3W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 47% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | OFI 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.55 xG and OFI 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.922 / defence 1.136 | OFI attack 1.106 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 31%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 60% | OFI 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 1 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Volos NFC 1.55 / OFI 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.922 / def 1.136 | OFI attack 1.106 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
OFI xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs OFI kick off?
Volos NFC vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs OFI?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Volos NFC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs OFI part of?
Volos NFC vs OFI is a Conference League Group - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 41% chance of winning, OFI a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Volos NFC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and OFI?
Record (7 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 2 | OFI 3W.
What form are Volos NFC and OFI in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. OFI (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — OFI's attack (1.11x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.52
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.34
OFI xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.34 for OFI, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 19W 10D 29L from 58 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 28L across 58 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Volos NFC against 1.21 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 9W 8D 12L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 9W 6D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.28 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and OFI in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 19W 10D 29L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while OFI have gone 20W 10D 28L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or OFI away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.21 PPG; OFI away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
OFI go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
3
Draws
5
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, OFI have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when OFI 2-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 48%, OFI 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Volos NFC) and 62% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 34% of games; OFI in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 52% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Volos NFC's recent games and 62% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and OFI tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, OFI in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Panthessaliko Stadium, Conference League Group - 1, as Volos NFC and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.55 xG and OFI 1.34 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against OFI attack 1.11 / defence 1.29, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 31%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, OFI 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.16 PPG, OFI 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.