Volos NFC 1-1 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Ionikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos NFC have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ionikos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ionikos have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Volos NFC at 1.00 PPG versus Ionikos's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 0 for Ionikos and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ionikos in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Volos NFC 74% and Ionikos 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 79% | Ionikos 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.30 xG and Ionikos 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.958 / defence 1.435 | Ionikos attack 0.655 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.162. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Volos NFC games / 19 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 28% | Ionikos 31%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Ionikos 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 60% | Ionikos 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 28% | Ionikos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Volos NFC 1.30 / Ionikos 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.958 / def 1.435 | Ionikos attack 0.655 / def 1.387 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ionikos xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Ionikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Ionikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Ionikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 41% chance of winning, Ionikos a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Volos NFC and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Ionikos?
Record (1 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 1 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and Ionikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Ionikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.64
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.40
1.09
Ionikos xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.09 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 3D 9L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ionikos sit at 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.26 PPG, Ionikos on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Volos NFC's home form reads 5W 0D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Ionikos have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.84 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 7W 3D 9L in their last 19 games (1.26 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Ionikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.50 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
3
Draws
0
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Ionikos?
From 5 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, Ionikos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2023, when Ionikos 0-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Ionikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 60%, Ionikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Volos NFC and 50% for Ionikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ionikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 40% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Volos NFC's matches and 50% of Ionikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Ionikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Ionikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Ionikos finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.30 xG and Ionikos 1.09 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.96 / defence 1.44 against Ionikos attack 0.66 / defence 1.39, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 28% | Ionikos 31%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 79%, Ionikos 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Ionikos's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.26 PPG, Ionikos 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.