PAS Giannina 3-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as PAS Giannina welcome Panetolikos to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.25 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 1W 2D 1L this season (4 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 1W 2D 5L from 8 Super League 1 matches — 0.62 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 2.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.62 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
PAS Giannina carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.63 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.25 vs 0.62. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAS Giannina 50% and Panetolikos 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 12% | Panetolikos 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.71 xG and Panetolikos 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.935 / defence 1.161 | Panetolikos attack 0.961 / defence 1.691. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.155. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.691 — this is suppressing PAS Giannina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 PAS Giannina games / 8 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 26%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Panetolikos 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 75% | Panetolikos 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG PAS Giannina 1.71 / Panetolikos 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.935 / def 1.161 | Panetolikos attack 0.961 / def 1.691 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Panetolikos xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina 3 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 44% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 2.12 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.34
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.99
1.29
Panetolikos xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.29 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 5L across 8 games — 0.62 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAS Giannina by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.62 PPG overall record — Panetolikos travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.12 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos in 88%.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 0.67 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.33 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
4
Draws
1
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Panetolikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — PAS Giannina at 100%, Panetolikos at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for PAS Giannina and 100% for Panetolikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of PAS Giannina's games and 100% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of PAS Giannina's matches and 100% of Panetolikos's.
Do PAS Giannina and Panetolikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAS Giannina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Panetolikos 3-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.71 xG and Panetolikos 1.29 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PAS Giannina beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panetolikos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Panetolikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.69, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 26%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 12%, Panetolikos 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panetolikos's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PAS Giannina arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.