PAS Giannina 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Zosimades. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, PAS Giannina have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 30% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 22% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.034 / defence 1.063 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.108 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Data: 26 PAS Giannina games / 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 28% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 28% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG PAS Giannina 0.94 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.034 / def 1.063 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.108 / def 0.920 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAS Giannina 1 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 28% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (2 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
28%
3.57
29%
3.43
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.18
1.24
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.24 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 7D 9L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.52 PPG from 27 outings (21W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
PAS Giannina's home form reads 7W 3D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.31 points per game from 13 outings (9W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.81 scored and 0.56 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into PAS Giannina's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PAS Giannina have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 11W 7D 9L in their last 27 games (1.48 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 5D 1L in their last 27 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.85 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.31 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 46%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (PAS Giannina) and 62% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 62% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.11 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 28% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 22%, Olympiakos Piraeus 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.