PAS Giannina 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamia make the trip to Stadio Zosimades to face PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 28 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAS Giannina have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's home record at Stadio Zosimades: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in PAS Giannina's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAS Giannina lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with PAS Giannina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
PAS Giannina — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Lamia — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 33% versus Lamia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 25% | Lamia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.25 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.059 / defence 1.114 | Lamia attack 0.561 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.057. Data: 24 PAS Giannina games / 24 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 30% | Lamia 20%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Lamia 5.00. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 50% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 30% | Lamia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG PAS Giannina 1.25 / Lamia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.059 / def 1.114 | Lamia attack 0.561 / def 1.199 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Lamia xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Lamia kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Lamia kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 28 February 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
PAS Giannina 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Lamia part of?
PAS Giannina vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 51% chance of winning, Lamia a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both PAS Giannina and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Lamia?
Record (1 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Lamia in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Lamia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 1.06x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.56x) against PAS Giannina's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.37
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
1.92
0.66
Lamia xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
6%
17.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.66 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAS Giannina come into this having played 24 games, going 10W 6D 8L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.75 PPG from 24 outings (4W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PAS Giannina's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.79 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Lamia in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 10W 6D 8L in their last 24 games (1.50 PPG), while Lamia have gone 4W 6D 14L in their last 24 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Lamia away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.75 PPG; Lamia away: 0.75 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Lamia in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lamia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamia won 1-4 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAS Giannina have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
3
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Lamia?
From 7 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, Lamia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-4 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, Lamia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PAS Giannina) and 33% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Lamia in 33%; Lamia in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 33% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 33% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Lamia tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lamia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAS Giannina edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.25 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Lamia attack 0.56 / defence 1.20, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 51% | Draw 30% | Lamia 20%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 25%, Lamia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAS Giannina arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.