PAOK 1-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 January 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
PAOK hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Volos NFC, with 0 draws in between.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 4–1 with PAOK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Volos NFC trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 60% versus Volos NFC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 68% | Volos NFC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.95 xG and Volos NFC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.244 / defence 1.037 | Volos NFC attack 0.837 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.207. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 PAOK games / 43 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 58% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 20%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Volos NFC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 50% | Volos NFC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 58% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG PAOK 1.95 / Volos NFC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.244 / def 1.037 | Volos NFC attack 0.837 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: PAOK (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Volos NFC xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Volos NFC kick off?
PAOK vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
PAOK 1 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is PAOK vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Volos NFC part of?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 58% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAOK and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
Record (7 meetings): PAOK 7W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.24) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
58%
1.71
22%
4.60
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.99
1.05
Volos NFC xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
35.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for PAOK and 1.05 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 33W 8D 9L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 13W 11D 26L from 50 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.04 PPG from 24 outings (15W 4D 5L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 7W 5D 12L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 33W 8D 9L in their last 50 games (2.14 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Volos NFC away?
PAOK's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.04 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.08 PPG.
Have PAOK or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
PAOK
0
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 8, Volos NFC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Volos NFC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 46%, Volos NFC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (PAOK) and 46% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Volos NFC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PAOK's recent matches and 38% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of PAOK's matches and 46% of Volos NFC's.
Do PAOK and Volos NFC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat PAOK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat PAOK 1-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.95 xG and Volos NFC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAOK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Volos NFC outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Volos NFC attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 58% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 20%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 68%, Volos NFC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Volos NFC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.