PAOK 1-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAOK and Panetolikos meet at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PAOK are significantly better at Stadio Toumbas than their overall form suggests.
Panetolikos (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Panetolikos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 48% versus Panetolikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 42% | Panetolikos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.52 xG and Panetolikos 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.038 / defence 0.953 | Panetolikos attack 1.005 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.254. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 Panetolikos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAOK 44% | Draw 26% | Panetolikos 30%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Panetolikos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 50% | Panetolikos 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 44% | Draw 26% | Panetolikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG PAOK 1.52 / Panetolikos 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.038 / def 0.953 | Panetolikos attack 1.005 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: PAOK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Panetolikos xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Panetolikos kick off?
PAOK vs Panetolikos kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Panetolikos?
PAOK 1 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is PAOK vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Panetolikos part of?
PAOK vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 44% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PAOK and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panetolikos?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Panetolikos in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PAOK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (1.00x) against PAOK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.84
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.72
1.20
Panetolikos xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PAOK and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for PAOK and 1.20 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK's recent record stands at 17W 7D 9L from 33 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. PAOK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 16L across 33 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. Panetolikos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 9W 4D 3L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 6W 2D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.97 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Pre-Season
Panetolikos
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 17W 7D 9L in their last 33 games (1.76 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 10W 7D 16L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Panetolikos away?
PAOK's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.94 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.25 PPG.
Have PAOK or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 0-3 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 9, Panetolikos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Panetolikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 56%, Panetolikos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAOK) and 62% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Panetolikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of PAOK's games and 56% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAOK vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAOK's recent games and 62% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Panetolikos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Panetolikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 1-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.52 xG and Panetolikos 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Panetolikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 44% | Draw 26% | Panetolikos 30%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 42%, Panetolikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panetolikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.