PAOK 0-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Toumba Stadium to face PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Group - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK at Toumba Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panathinaikos are 0.50 PPG clear of PAOK in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 1.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Panathinaikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 52% versus Panathinaikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 64% | Panathinaikos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.54 xG and Panathinaikos 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.343 / defence 0.599 | Panathinaikos attack 1.272 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 0.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.599 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 53% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 18%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Panathinaikos 5.56. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panathinaikos (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Panathinaikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 1 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 53% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG PAOK 1.54 / Panathinaikos 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.343 / def 0.599 | Panathinaikos attack 1.272 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: PAOK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Panathinaikos xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Panathinaikos kick off?
PAOK vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
PAOK 0 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is PAOK vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Panathinaikos part of?
PAOK vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Group - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 53% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAOK and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
Record (8 meetings): PAOK 4W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 3W.
What form are PAOK and Panathinaikos in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.34x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.27x) against PAOK's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
53%
1.90
30%
3.39
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.35
0.81
Panathinaikos xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
26.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are PAOK and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for PAOK and 0.81 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK come into this having played 58 games, going 35W 10D 13L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.86 PPG from 58 outings (31W 15D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for PAOK against 1.86 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAOK's home form reads 20W 4D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.52 points per game from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.48 scored and 1.00 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Panathinaikos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 35W 10D 13L in their last 58 games (1.98 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 31W 15D 12L in their last 58 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Panathinaikos away?
PAOK's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.21 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.52 PPG.
Have PAOK or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-1 on 15 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panathinaikos 2-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 38%, Panathinaikos 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (PAOK) and 48% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAOK's recent matches and 52% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of PAOK's recent games and 48% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAOK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Toumba Stadium, Championship Group - 1, as PAOK and Panathinaikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.54 xG and Panathinaikos 0.81 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAOK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.34 / defence 0.60 against Panathinaikos attack 1.27 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 53% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 18%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 64%, Panathinaikos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.98 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.