PAOK 4-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 9. The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAOK at Stadio Toumbas this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Panathinaikos (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for PAOK against 1.90 for Panathinaikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 3–2 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 47% versus Panathinaikos 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 57% | Panathinaikos 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.77 xG and Panathinaikos 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.211 / defence 0.868 | Panathinaikos attack 1.200 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 44% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 29%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Panathinaikos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 50% | Panathinaikos 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 44% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG PAOK 1.77 / Panathinaikos 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.211 / def 0.868 | Panathinaikos attack 1.200 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: PAOK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Panathinaikos xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Panathinaikos kick off?
PAOK vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
PAOK 4 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is PAOK vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Panathinaikos part of?
PAOK vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 44% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both PAOK and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
Record (1 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 0 | Panathinaikos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Panathinaikos in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.21x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.20x) against PAOK's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.71
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.19
1.42
Panathinaikos xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are PAOK and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for PAOK and 1.42 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK come into this having played 70 games, going 42W 15D 13L for 2.01 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 2.10 PPG from 70 outings (44W 15D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.01 PPG for PAOK against 2.10 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAOK's home form reads 24W 5D 6L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 2.06 points per game from 35 outings (22W 6D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.77 scored and 0.69 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Panathinaikos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Panathinaikos in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Panathinaikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 42W 15D 13L in their last 70 games (2.01 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 44W 15D 11L in their last 70 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Panathinaikos away?
PAOK's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.20 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.06 PPG.
Have PAOK or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-1 on 15 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panathinaikos 2-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Panathinaikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 40%, Panathinaikos 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (PAOK) and 46% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAOK's recent matches and 37% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of PAOK's recent games and 46% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Panathinaikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panathinaikos 4-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.77 xG and Panathinaikos 1.42 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Panathinaikos attack 1.20 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 44% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 29%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 57%, Panathinaikos 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.01 PPG, Panathinaikos 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.