PAOK 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host OFI at Toumba Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 9W 1D 0L at Toumba Stadium — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: PAOK have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while OFI have managed just 2 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with PAOK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 53% versus OFI 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 66% | OFI 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.40 xG and OFI 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.273 / defence 0.692 | OFI attack 0.898 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.102. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAOK's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 PAOK games / 41 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 75% | Draw 16% | OFI 9%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | OFI 11.11. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 75% | Draw 16% | OFI 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 45% | xG PAOK 2.40 / OFI 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.273 / def 0.692 | OFI attack 0.898 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: PAOK (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.69
OFI xG
45%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs OFI kick off?
PAOK vs OFI kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs OFI?
PAOK 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is PAOK vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs OFI part of?
PAOK vs OFI is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 75% chance of winning, OFI a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAOK and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
Record (9 meetings): PAOK 5W | Draws 2 | OFI 2W.
What form are PAOK and OFI in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. OFI (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.27) and OFI's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.24
9%
11.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.08
0.69
OFI xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.24
16%
Draw
11.59
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
9%
11.02
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
1%
127.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are PAOK and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for PAOK and 0.69 for OFI, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 47 games, going 29W 6D 12L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.13 PPG from 47 outings (15W 8D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 15W 3D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.26 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and OFI in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 29W 6D 12L in their last 47 games (1.98 PPG), while OFI have gone 15W 8D 24L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or OFI away?
PAOK's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.09 PPG; OFI away: 1.09 PPG.
Have PAOK or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, OFI in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PAOK
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and OFI?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 39%, OFI 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (PAOK) and 61% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; OFI in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of PAOK's recent matches and 48% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of PAOK's matches and 61% of OFI's.
Do PAOK and OFI tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, OFI in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat OFI 3-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.40 xG and OFI 0.69 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.27 / defence 0.69 against OFI attack 0.90 / defence 1.32, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 75% | Draw 16% | OFI 9%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 66%, OFI 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.