PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.70 PPG for PAOK against 2.40 for AEK Athens FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 42% versus AEK Athens FC 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 58% | AEK Athens FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.89 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.456 / defence 0.603 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.380 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.276. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — the away xG of 1.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.603 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 PAOK games / 47 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 56% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 20%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | AEK Athens FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 30% | AEK Athens FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 56% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG PAOK 1.89 / AEK Athens FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.456 / def 0.603 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.380 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: PAOK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.06
AEK Athens FC xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
PAOK 1 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 56% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAOK and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in?
PAOK (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.46x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.38x) against PAOK's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.16
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.95
1.06
AEK Athens FC xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
3%
32.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for PAOK and 1.06 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 35W 12D 10L from 57 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 40W 11D 6L across 57 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for PAOK against 2.30 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 20W 4D 4L from 28 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 18W 6D 4L across 28 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.02 scored and 0.61 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 35W 12D 10L in their last 57 games (2.05 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 40W 11D 6L in their last 57 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAOK's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.29 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.14 PPG.
Have PAOK or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
4
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 36%, AEK Athens FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (PAOK) and 54% (AEK Athens FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of PAOK's recent matches and 43% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of PAOK's matches and 54% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do PAOK and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 22, as PAOK and AEK Athens FC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.89 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PAOK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.46 / defence 0.60 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.81, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 56% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 20%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 58%, AEK Athens FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.05 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.