Panserraikos 2-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panserraikos face PAS Giannina.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Panserraikos welcome PAS Giannina to Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 5). Kick-off is Sunday 21 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Panserraikos have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Panserraikos's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

PAS Giannina — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Panserraikos) versus 0.70 (PAS Giannina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Panserraikos's games and 70% of PAS Giannina's (from Panserraikos's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Panserraikos have won 2, PAS Giannina 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended Panserraikos 2–0 PAS Giannina — a Panserraikos win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Panserraikos trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

PAS Giannina trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 47% versus PAS Giannina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 43% | PAS Giannina 53%). Note also that PAS Giannina surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Panserraikos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.45 xG and PAS Giannina 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.717 / defence 1.062 | PAS Giannina attack 0.940 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Panserraikos's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.45. PAS Giannina's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panserraikos's projected output up. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 26 games and PAS Giannina's last 52.

Result probabilities: Panserraikos 37% | Draw 30% | PAS Giannina 33%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.69 | Draw 3.36 | PAS Giannina 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Panserraikos are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Panserraikos's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 60% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights