Panserraikos 0-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Levadiakos (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panserraikos face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Monday 22 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's home record at Dimotiko Stadio Serron: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Levadiakos arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Levadiakos, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–5 with Levadiakos winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Levadiakos have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Panserraikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 50% versus Levadiakos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 60% | Levadiakos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.79 xG and Levadiakos 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.594 / defence 1.480 | Levadiakos attack 1.192 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.140. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Panserraikos games / 40 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 14% | Draw 20% | Levadiakos 66%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 7.14 | Draw 5.00 | Levadiakos 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 30% | Levadiakos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Monday 22 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 14% | Draw 20% | Levadiakos 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Panserraikos 0.79 / Levadiakos 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.594 / def 1.480 | Levadiakos attack 1.192 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Levadiakos xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panserraikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 22 December 2025 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Panserraikos 0 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panserraikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 14% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 66% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Panserraikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
Record (5 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 4W.
What form are Panserraikos and Levadiakos in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panserraikos's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.19x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
14%
7.28
20%
4.90
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.80
2.01
Levadiakos xG
7.28
14%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
13%
7.47
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
2%
54.41
30%
3.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Panserraikos and 2.01 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panserraikos come into this having played 50 games, going 11W 9D 30L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.50 PPG from 50 outings (20W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Panserraikos's home form reads 7W 7D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (9W 9D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.68 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 11W 9D 30L in their last 50 games (0.84 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.17 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Levadiakos go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 3-0 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
1
Draws
5
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Levadiakos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Panserraikos 0-2 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 54%, Levadiakos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Panserraikos) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Panserraikos's games and 62% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Panserraikos's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 0-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.79 xG and Levadiakos 2.01 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.59 / defence 1.48 against Levadiakos attack 1.19 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 14% | Draw 20% | Levadiakos 66%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 60%, Levadiakos 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.