Panetolikos 1-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panetolikos (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panetolikos face Larisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Larisa make the trip to Panetolikos Stadium to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 8. The match kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Panetolikos (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Panetolikos Stadium, Panetolikos have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Panetolikos Stadium this season.
Larisa have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Larisa's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Panetolikos's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Panetolikos, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Larisa — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Panetolikos winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Panetolikos and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 42% versus Larisa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | Larisa 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.18 xG and Larisa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.882 / defence 1.203 | Larisa attack 0.739 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 26 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 39% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Larisa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 50% | Larisa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 8 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 39% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Panetolikos 1.18 / Larisa 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.882 / def 1.203 | Larisa attack 0.739 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Larisa xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Larisa kick off?
Panetolikos vs Larisa kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Panetolikos 1 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Panetolikos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Larisa part of?
Panetolikos vs Larisa is a Relegation Group - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 39% chance of winning, Larisa a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Panetolikos and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Larisa?
Record (3 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 0 | Larisa 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and Larisa in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Larisa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.88x the league average against Larisa's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.74x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
39%
2.56
34%
2.97
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.13
0.95
Larisa xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.95 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Panetolikos have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 7D 17L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Larisa's form line: 4W 14D 15L from 33 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Panetolikos against 0.79 for Larisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panetolikos have posted 0.88 PPG from 16 outings (4W 2D 10L).
On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 6D 8L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.88 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Larisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 9W 7D 17L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 14D 15L in their last 33 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Larisa away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.88 PPG; Larisa away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won 3-0 on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Larisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
1
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Larisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Larisa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Panetolikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Larisa?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 50%, Larisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Panetolikos) and 44% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 44% of games; Larisa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 50% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Panetolikos's recent games and 44% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Larisa tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Larisa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panetolikos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 8, as Panetolikos and Larisa drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.18 xG and Larisa 0.95 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Larisa attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 39% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 46%, Larisa 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.03 PPG, Larisa 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.