Panetolikos 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atromitos at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Group - 1 as Panetolikos welcome Atromitos to Panetolikos Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 4W 1D 5L at Panetolikos Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Atromitos — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atromitos are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Panetolikos, 5 for Atromitos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 34% versus Atromitos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 33% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.90 xG and Atromitos 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.851 / defence 1.252 | Atromitos attack 0.912 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 25% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 41%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Atromitos 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | Atromitos 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 1 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 25% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Panetolikos 0.90 / Atromitos 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.851 / def 1.252 | Atromitos attack 0.912 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Atromitos xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Panetolikos 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos is a Relegation Group - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 25% chance of winning, Atromitos a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Panetolikos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Record (8 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 5W.
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
25%
3.99
34%
2.98
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.11
1.21
Atromitos xG
3.99
25%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.7 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.21 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 13D 26L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.24 PPG from 58 outings (19W 15D 24L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.21 PPG, Atromitos on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 10W 3D 16L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 1.62 points per game from 29 outings (14W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.12 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 19W 13D 26L in their last 58 games (1.21 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 19W 15D 24L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.14 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atromitos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Atromitos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 34%, Atromitos 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Panetolikos) and 52% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 31%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 45% of games; Atromitos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 45% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Panetolikos's recent games and 52% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panetolikos and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 1, as Panetolikos and Atromitos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.90 xG and Atromitos 1.21 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Atromitos attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 25% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 41%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 33%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.21 PPG, Atromitos 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.