Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panetolikos Stadium plays host to Panetolikos versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 2W 0D 8L at Panetolikos Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Panetolikos, 2 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 35% versus Asteras Tripolis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 33% | Asteras Tripolis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.21 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.789 / defence 1.393 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.698 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.160. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Panetolikos games / 46 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 34%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Asteras Tripolis 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | Asteras Tripolis 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 38% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Panetolikos 1.21 / Asteras Tripolis 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.789 / def 1.393 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.698 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Asteras Tripolis xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Panetolikos 3 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 38% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (6 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 2W.
What form are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.70x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.57
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.34
1.13
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.13 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 11D 24L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (16W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.15 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Panetolikos's home form reads 8W 2D 16L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (7W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 games (1.19 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Asteras Tripolis's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
3
Draws
4
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 31%, Asteras Tripolis 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Panetolikos) and 42% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 31%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 46% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 46% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Panetolikos's recent games and 42% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panetolikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Asteras Tripolis 3-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.21 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.13 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.39 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.70 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 38% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 34%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 33%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.19 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.