Panathinaikos 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panathinaikos have posted 10W 0D 0L at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis — 3.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Panathinaikos's 3.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 30% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 39% | Olympiakos Piraeus 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.106 / defence 0.626 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.099 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.109. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.626 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Panathinaikos games / 36 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 41% | Draw 39% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.44 | Draw 2.56 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 20% | Olympiakos Piraeus 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 41% | Draw 39% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Panathinaikos 1.14 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.106 / def 0.626 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.099 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panathinaikos 1 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 41% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 21% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.11) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.10x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
41%
2.45
39%
2.58
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
1.91
0.76
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.76 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 28W 7D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 31W 10D 5L from 46 games, 2.24 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Panathinaikos against 2.24 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.45 PPG from 22 outings (17W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 14W 5D 3L from 22 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.70 scored and 0.72 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 28W 7D 11L in their last 46 games (1.98 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 31W 10D 5L in their last 46 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.45 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panathinaikos
4
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 23%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Panathinaikos) and 54% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.14 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.76 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.11 / defence 0.63 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.10 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 41% | Draw 39% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 39%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.98 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.