Panathinaikos 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panathinaikos host OFI at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.43 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 1W 5D 1L from 7 Super League 1 matches — 1.14 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.14 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panathinaikos 1.43 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Panathinaikos register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, OFI in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
OFI in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 43% versus OFI 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 57% | OFI 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.89 xG and OFI 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.668 / defence 0.995 | OFI attack 0.836 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.187. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.668 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 Panathinaikos games / 7 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 57% | Draw 25% | OFI 18%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | OFI 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 67% | OFI 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 57% | Draw 25% | OFI 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Panathinaikos 1.89 / OFI 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.668 / def 0.995 | OFI attack 0.836 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.99
OFI xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs OFI kick off?
Panathinaikos vs OFI kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Panathinaikos 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is Panathinaikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs OFI part of?
Panathinaikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 57% chance of winning, OFI a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panathinaikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.86 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. OFI (all comps): 1W-5D-1L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.67) and OFI's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.03
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.87
0.99
OFI xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
36.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.99 for OFI, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 1L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panathinaikos on 1.43 PPG, OFI on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 1W 2D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.14 PPG overall record — OFI travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: OFI in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while OFI have gone 1W 5D 1L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or OFI away?
Panathinaikos's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 3.00 PPG; OFI away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, OFI in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 6, OFI have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Panathinaikos at 67%, OFI at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Panathinaikos and 33% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OFI in 33%; OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Panathinaikos's games and 67% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panathinaikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Panathinaikos's matches and 33% of OFI's.
Do Panathinaikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, OFI in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panathinaikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and OFI finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.89 xG and OFI 0.99 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panathinaikos fell 1.9 short of their projected output. OFI landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.67 / defence 0.99 against OFI attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 57% | Draw 25% | OFI 18%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 57%, OFI 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.43 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 4.33 scoring average — below par going forward. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.