Panathinaikos 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 5 January 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 6W 1D 1L from 8 Super League 1 appearances (2.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Their home PPG of 2.38 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 4W 1D 3L from 8 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.90 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 36% versus Aris Thessalonikis 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panathinaikos 43% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.32 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.304 / defence 0.866 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.783 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.188. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 1.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Panathinaikos games / 15 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 49% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 23%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.35. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 38% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Jan 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 49% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Panathinaikos 1.32 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.304 / def 0.866 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.783 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Aris Thessalonikis xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 5 January 2022 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 2 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 49% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.30) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.78x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.52
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.13
0.81
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.81 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 7W 2D 5L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 8W 2D 4L from 14 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.86 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.38 PPG from 8 outings (6W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.21 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.38 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 38%, Aris Thessalonikis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panathinaikos) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.32 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.81 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.30 / defence 0.87 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 49% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 23%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 43%, Aris Thessalonikis 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (14 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (14 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.64 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.