Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Panserraikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.

Panserraikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.30 for Panserraikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 2W, Panserraikos 0W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).

Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 52% versus Panserraikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Panserraikos 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75 xG and Panserraikos 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.197 / defence 0.889 | Panserraikos attack 0.983 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.216. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 35 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 52% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 22%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Panserraikos 4.55. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Panserraikos 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights