Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 10W 0D 0L at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 0 for OFI, with 0 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 46% versus OFI 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | OFI 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.73 xG and OFI 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.465 / defence 0.727 | OFI attack 0.875 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.250. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 37 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 78% | Draw 14% | OFI 8%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | OFI 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | OFI 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 78% | Draw 14% | OFI 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 51% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.73 / OFI 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.465 / def 0.727 | OFI attack 0.875 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.80
OFI xG
51%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 78% chance of winning, OFI a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Record (8 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 8W | Draws 0 | OFI 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. OFI (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.47x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
78%
1.28
14%
7.27
8%
12.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.53
0.80
OFI xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.27
14%
Draw
12.05
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
7%
15.36
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
1%
185.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.80 for OFI, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 43 games, going 32W 7D 4L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.09 PPG from 43 outings (13W 8D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.31 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 17W 4D 0L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.62 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.19 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 32W 7D 4L in their last 43 games (2.40 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 8D 22L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or OFI away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.62 PPG; OFI away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, OFI in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 10 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting OFI specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
0
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, OFI have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, OFI 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 57% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; OFI in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 48% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 57% of OFI's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, OFI in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 3-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.73 xG and OFI 0.80 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.47 / defence 0.73 against OFI attack 0.88 / defence 1.31, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 78% | Draw 14% | OFI 8%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 49%, OFI 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.