Olympiakos Piraeus 5-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Asteras Tripolis make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Asteras Tripolis's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 53% versus Asteras Tripolis 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Asteras Tripolis 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.094 / defence 0.812 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.930 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.037. Data: 40 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 40 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.96 | Draw 3.03 | Asteras Tripolis 6.25. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Asteras Tripolis 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 / Asteras Tripolis 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.094 / def 0.812 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.930 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Asteras Tripolis xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 5 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 51% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (3 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 2W | Draws 1 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.09x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.93x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
51%
1.96
33%
3.03
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.29
0.78
Asteras Tripolis xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
27.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.78 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 47 games, going 30W 12D 5L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.17 PPG from 47 outings (13W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 16W 5D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (4W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.94 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Asteras Tripolis in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 30W 12D 5L in their last 47 games (2.17 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.30 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, Asteras Tripolis 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 30% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 35%; Asteras Tripolis in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 44% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 30% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 5-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.78 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.09 / defence 0.81 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, Asteras Tripolis 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.