Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 9. The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, AEK Athens FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 47% versus AEK Athens FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | AEK Athens FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.285 / defence 0.850 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.331 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | AEK Athens FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | AEK Athens FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 / AEK Athens FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.285 / def 0.850 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.331 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.54
AEK Athens FC xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 0 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 44% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Record (1 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 0W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.28x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.33x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.89
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.43
1.54
AEK Athens FC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
5%
22.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.54 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 70 games, going 43W 15D 12L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.26 PPG from 70 outings (48W 14D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.06 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.26 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 25W 5D 5L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 2.03 points per game from 35 outings (21W 8D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.09 scored and 0.71 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 43W 15D 12L in their last 70 games (2.06 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 48W 14D 8L in their last 70 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.29 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, AEK Athens FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 60% for AEK Athens FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 51% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 51% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 60% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AEK Athens FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 2-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.54 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AEK Athens FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.28 / defence 0.85 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 30%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 57%, AEK Athens FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.06 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.