OFI 2-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as OFI take on Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Levadiakos — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (OFI) versus 0.60 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Levadiakos 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OFI 42% | Levadiakos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.94 xG and Levadiakos 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.730 / defence 1.151 | Levadiakos attack 0.532 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.088. OFI's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 OFI games / 12 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 37% | Draw 42% | Levadiakos 21%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.70 | Draw 2.38 | Levadiakos 4.76. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 21% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | Levadiakos 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 14 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 37% | Draw 42% | Levadiakos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 33% | xG OFI 0.94 / Levadiakos 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.730 / def 1.151 | Levadiakos attack 0.532 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Levadiakos xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Levadiakos kick off?
OFI vs Levadiakos kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 14 November 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
OFI 2 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is OFI vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Levadiakos part of?
OFI vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 37% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 21% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both OFI and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.73) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.74
42%
2.37
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
OFI xG
Total xG
1.60
0.67
Levadiakos xG
2.74
37%
Home win
2.37
42%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for OFI and 0.67 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, OFI have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 1W 4D 7L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 1W 4D 7L from 12 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 0.58 PPG, Levadiakos on 0.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 0.33 PPG from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Levadiakos away?
OFI's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 0.33 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Levadiakos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
OFI
3
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Levadiakos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for OFI and 33% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 33%; OFI have failed to score in 50% of games; Levadiakos in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 33% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of OFI's recent games and 33% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Levadiakos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Levadiakos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Levadiakos 2-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.94 xG and Levadiakos 0.67 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.73 / defence 1.15 against Levadiakos attack 0.53 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 37% | Draw 42% | Levadiakos 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 42%, Levadiakos 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 0.58 PPG, Levadiakos 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.