OFI vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI's home record at Pankritio Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Levadiakos — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (OFI) versus 1.30 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. OFI's 20% rate and Levadiakos's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 47% versus Levadiakos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (OFI 68% | Levadiakos 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 2.01 xG and Levadiakos 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.072 / defence 0.911 | Levadiakos attack 0.912 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 OFI games / 28 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 63% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 13%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Levadiakos 7.69. The model has a clear lean to OFI (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: OFI 20% | Levadiakos 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 63% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG OFI 2.01 / Levadiakos 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.072 / def 0.911 | Levadiakos attack 0.912 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: OFI (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Levadiakos xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Levadiakos kick off?
OFI vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Levadiakos part of?
OFI vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 63% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OFI and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
Record (9 meetings): OFI 3W | Draws 3 | Levadiakos 3W.
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.07) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.23
13%
7.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
OFI xG
Total xG
2.84
0.83
Levadiakos xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
7.67
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
57.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for OFI and 0.83 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, OFI have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 13W 3D 18L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos's form line: 15W 7D 12L from 34 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.24 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (9W 0D 8L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 5W 4D 8L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.85 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 3D 18L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Levadiakos away?
OFI's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.59 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Levadiakos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
OFI
3
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 29%, Levadiakos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for OFI and 65% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 29% of games; Levadiakos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of OFI's recent matches and 47% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of OFI's matches and 65% of Levadiakos's.
Do OFI and Levadiakos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.