OFI vs Iraklis 1908 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as OFI welcome Iraklis 1908 to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 6W 1D 3L at Pankritio Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Iraklis 1908 — All Games: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Iraklis 1908 have posted 0W 2D 2L from 4 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (OFI) versus 0.86 (Iraklis 1908). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Iraklis 1908 in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 43% versus Iraklis 1908 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 57% | Iraklis 1908 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.70 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.056 / defence 0.935 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.727 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.065. Data: 33 OFI games / 7 Iraklis 1908 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 58% | Draw 28% | Iraklis 1908 13%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.72 | Draw 3.57 | Iraklis 1908 7.69. The model has a clear lean to OFI (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | Iraklis 1908 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 58% | Draw 28% | Iraklis 1908 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG OFI 1.70 / Iraklis 1908 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.056 / def 0.935 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.727 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: OFI (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Iraklis 1908 xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
OFI vs Iraklis 1908 is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
OFI vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 58% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 13% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both OFI and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Iraklis 1908?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Iraklis 1908 in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OFI's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Iraklis 1908's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Iraklis 1908's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
58%
1.71
28%
3.54
13%
7.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
OFI xG
Total xG
2.42
0.72
Iraklis 1908 xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
7.51
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
2%
41.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are OFI and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for OFI and 0.72 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 1D 3L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Iraklis 1908 sit at 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Iraklis 1908 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Iraklis 1908 have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Iraklis 1908 away?
OFI's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 2.33 PPG; Iraklis 1908 away: 0.67 PPG.
Have OFI or Iraklis 1908 been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Iraklis 1908 in 29%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Iraklis 1908 see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 33%, Iraklis 1908 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for OFI and 33% for Iraklis 1908.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Iraklis 1908 in 33%; Iraklis 1908 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Iraklis 1908?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of OFI's recent matches and 67% of Iraklis 1908's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of OFI's recent games and 33% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.