OFI 2-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis plays host to OFI versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.12 PPG across 8 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 6D 1L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
Atromitos (all games): 0W 3D 5L across 8 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.38 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.74 in OFI's favour (1.12 vs 0.38) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Atromitos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 38% | Atromitos 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.31 xG and Atromitos 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.859 / defence 1.231 | Atromitos attack 0.690 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.155. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 OFI games / 8 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 40% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 24%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Atromitos 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | Atromitos 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 40% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG OFI 1.31 / Atromitos 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.859 / def 1.231 | Atromitos attack 0.690 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: OFI (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atromitos xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Atromitos kick off?
OFI vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Atromitos?
OFI 2 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is OFI vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Atromitos part of?
OFI vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 40% chance of winning, Atromitos a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OFI and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Atromitos in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-6D-1L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Atromitos (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OFI's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.69x) against OFI's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
40%
2.47
35%
2.84
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
OFI xG
Total xG
2.29
0.98
Atromitos xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are OFI and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for OFI and 0.98 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 6D 1L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 0W 3D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.62 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Atromitos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 1W 6D 1L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Atromitos away?
OFI's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 0.75 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.50 PPG.
Have OFI or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Atromitos in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
6
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Atromitos have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Atromitos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Atromitos 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for OFI and 75% for Atromitos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 50% of games; Atromitos in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 25% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of OFI's matches and 75% of Atromitos's.
OFI cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Atromitos 2-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.31 xG and Atromitos 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Atromitos attack 0.69 / defence 1.41, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 40% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 24%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 38%, Atromitos 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.