OFI 0-3 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 45% as OFI take on Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (OFI) versus 1.30 (Aris Thessalonikis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 51% versus Aris Thessalonikis 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 47% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.77 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.652 / defence 0.884 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.767 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.014. OFI's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 OFI games / 48 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 30% | Draw 45% | Aris Thessalonikis 25%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.33 | Draw 2.22 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.00. The draw (45%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.45. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.45 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Aris Thessalonikis's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 45% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.45 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 20 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 30% | Draw 45% | Aris Thessalonikis 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 30% | xG OFI 0.77 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.652 / def 0.884 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.767 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Draw (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Aris Thessalonikis xG
30%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 20 February 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI 0 - 3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 30% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 25% chance, and a 45% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.65) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 25.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.35
45%
2.23
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
OFI xG
Total xG
1.45
0.69
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.35
30%
Home win
2.23
45%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.30
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.4 | 16.1 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for OFI and 0.69 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.45.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, OFI have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 19D 20L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 26W 11D 18L from 55 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.18 PPG from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 11W 4D 13L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.22 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 16W 19D 20L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 26W 11D 18L in their last 55 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.18 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.32 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (OFI) and 32% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%; OFI have failed to score in 32% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of OFI's recent matches and 29% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of OFI's recent games and 32% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 0-3 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat OFI 0-3 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.77 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.69 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.65 / defence 0.88 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 30% | Draw 45% | Aris Thessalonikis 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 47%, Aris Thessalonikis 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.