Levadiakos vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, PAOK have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
PAOK — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus PAOK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 65% | PAOK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.20 xG and PAOK 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / defence 1.136 | PAOK attack 1.187 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 28 Levadiakos games / 28 PAOK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 31% | Draw 31% | PAOK 38%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | PAOK 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | PAOK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 31% | Draw 31% | PAOK 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Levadiakos 1.20 / PAOK 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.894 / def 1.136 | PAOK attack 1.187 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: PAOK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.34
PAOK xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs PAOK kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAOK part of?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 31% chance of winning, PAOK a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levadiakos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 6W.
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.89) and PAOK's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.19x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.26
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.54
1.34
PAOK xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.34 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 34 games, going 15W 7D 12L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.06 PPG from 34 outings (20W 10D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.91 scored and 0.76 conceded. Levadiakos's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while PAOK have gone 20W 10D 4L in their last 34 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or PAOK away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.94 PPG; PAOK away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, PAOK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-0 on 23 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, PAOK have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 59%, PAOK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Levadiakos and 65% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Levadiakos's games and 59% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Levadiakos's matches and 65% of PAOK's.
Do Levadiakos and PAOK tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.