Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 7W 1D 2L at Levadia Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Olympiakos Piraeus, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 64% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.31 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.552 / defence 1.042 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.242 / defence 0.613. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.158. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.552 — their λ of 1.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.613 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Levadiakos games / 46 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 33% | Draw 25% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 33% | Draw 25% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Levadiakos 1.31 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.552 / def 1.042 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.242 / def 0.613 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Levadiakos 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 33% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (5 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4W.
What form are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (1.55) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.24x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
33%
3.02
25%
3.98
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.81
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.50 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 24W 14D 14L from 52 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 37W 10D 5L across 52 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 13W 5D 8L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 17W 5D 4L across 26 trips, a 2.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.85 scored and 0.62 conceded. Levadiakos's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 24W 14D 14L in their last 52 games (1.65 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 37W 10D 5L in their last 52 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.69 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 62%, Olympiakos Piraeus 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Levadiakos) and 35% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 35% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Levadiakos's recent games and 35% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Levadiakos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 0-0 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.31 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.55 / defence 1.04 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.24 / defence 0.61, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 33% | Draw 25% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 60%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.