Levadiakos 2-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees OFI travel to Stadio Levadias to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Levadias this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Stadio Levadias than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for OFI and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with OFI winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
OFI trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 36% versus OFI 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 40% | OFI 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.58 xG and OFI 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.561 / defence 1.178 | OFI attack 1.386 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.992. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.561 is below the league average — the 0.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI have an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Levadiakos games / 51 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 10% | Draw 30% | OFI 60%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 10.00 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 1.67. The model has a clear lean to OFI (60%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 30% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 10% | Draw 30% | OFI 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 39% | xG Levadiakos 0.58 / OFI 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.561 / def 1.178 | OFI attack 1.386 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: OFI (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.58
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.62
OFI xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs OFI kick off?
Levadiakos vs OFI kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Levadiakos 2 - 0 OFI.
Where is Levadiakos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs OFI part of?
Levadiakos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 10% chance of winning, OFI a 60% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Levadiakos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | OFI 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.56) and OFI's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
10%
10.03
30%
3.28
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.5%
Away win
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.58
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.20
1.62
OFI xG
10.03
10%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
56%
1.79
Win to Nil
2%
50.68
33%
3.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 17.9 | 14.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.62 for OFI, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 25 games, going 2W 8D 15L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 2W 5D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 0.48 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 2W 8D 15L in their last 25 games (0.56 PPG), while OFI have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 0.92 PPG; OFI away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, OFI in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
3
Draws
3
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
From 9 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, OFI have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 42%, OFI 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Levadiakos) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 33%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and OFI tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, OFI in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat OFI 2-0 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.58 xG and OFI 1.62 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.56 / defence 1.18 against OFI attack 1.39 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 10% | Draw 30% | OFI 60%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Levadiakos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 40%, OFI 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
OFI's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Levadiakos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.