Levadiakos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Levadias plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 21 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Levadiakos (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Stadio Levadias this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Aris Thessalonikis and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 38% | Aris Thessalonikis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.82 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.790 / defence 1.118 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.044 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.088. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Levadiakos games / 39 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 20% | Draw 37% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.00 | Draw 2.70 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 20% | Draw 37% | Aris Thessalonikis 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Levadiakos 0.82 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.790 / def 1.118 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.044 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Aris Thessalonikis xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 21 December 2022 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 20% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 43% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.79x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.04x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 13/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
20%
4.92
37%
2.73
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.09
1.27
Aris Thessalonikis xG
4.92
20%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
6%
17.52
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.27 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 4D 8L for 0.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.54 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 0.54 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.54 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Levadiakos
4
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 8 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 60% (Levadiakos) and 0% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Levadiakos and 20% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 60%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 40% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 0% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Levadiakos's recent games and 20% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 14, as Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.82 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.27 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.04 / defence 0.85, drawn from 13/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 20% | Draw 37% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 38%, Aris Thessalonikis 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.