Lamia 2-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 40%, yet in-form Panserraikos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamia vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Panserraikos at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 7). Kick-off is Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Lamia have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Panserraikos have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Panserraikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Panserraikos are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Panserraikos have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Lamia.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2025, ended Lamia 1–1 Panserraikos — a draw.
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Panserraikos in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 51% versus Panserraikos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 55% | Panserraikos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.26 xG and Panserraikos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.806 / defence 1.099 | Panserraikos attack 0.934 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamia's projected output up. Data: built from Lamia's last 52 games and Panserraikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Lamia 40% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 33%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.53 | Draw 3.61 | Panserraikos 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panserraikos (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 30% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 40% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Lamia 1.26 / Panserraikos 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.806 / def 1.099 | Panserraikos attack 0.934 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Lamia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Panserraikos xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Panserraikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panserraikos kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Lamia 2 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panserraikos part of?
Lamia vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 7) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 40% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamia and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Lamia vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.81x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 52 games and Panserraikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.61
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.38
1.12
Panserraikos xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lamia and 1.12 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 65 games, going 11W 15D 39L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.14 PPG from 65 outings (19W 17D 29L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.74 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 6W 5D 20L across their last 31 home games, a 0.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 31 away games (6W 4D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
Lamia (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
❓ Lamia vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 11W 15D 39L in their last 65 games (0.74 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 19W 17D 29L in their last 65 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panserraikos away?
Lamia's home record (0.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.74 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lamia's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
4
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panserraikos?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 1, Panserraikos have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Lamia 2-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panserraikos?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Panserraikos 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lamia) and 55% (Panserraikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 42% of games; Panserraikos in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Panserraikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 39% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamia and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lamia's matches and 55% of Panserraikos's.
Do Lamia and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Lamia's recent matches and 68% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Panserraikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panserraikos 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.26 xG and Panserraikos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Panserraikos attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 40% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 33%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 55%, Panserraikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.74 PPG, Panserraikos 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.