Lamia 1-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lamia face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia in Super League 1 (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Lamia.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Lamia 0–4 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 48% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lamia surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Olympiakos Piraeus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.972 / defence 1.213 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.059 / defence 0.614. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.210. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.614, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lamia's projected output down. Lamia's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output up. Data: built from Lamia's last 41 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 41.
Result probabilities: Lamia 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.73 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.01. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 60% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 16 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Lamia 0.94 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.972 / def 1.213 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.059 / def 0.614 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 3 January 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Lamia 1 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 16) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 21% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.97) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 41 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
21%
4.73
29%
3.45
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.50
1.55
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.73
21%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
4%
22.35
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lamia and 1.55 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 9W 19D 20L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 29W 13D 6L from 48 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.22 PPG from their last 23 home games (7W 7D 9L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 13W 8D 2L from their last 23 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.08 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Lamia (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 19D 20L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 29W 13D 6L in their last 48 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.22 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Lamia or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 21 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 Lamia.
Lamia's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 December 2024: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Olympiakos Piraeus 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lamia) and 39% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 61%; Lamia have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 35% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lamia's recent games and 39% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Lamia's recent matches and 61% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.06 / defence 0.61, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 48%, Olympiakos Piraeus 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.