Lamia 1-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to face Lamia in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OFI have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Lamia against 1.10 for OFI. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lamia 1W, OFI 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Lamia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 48% versus OFI 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 48% | OFI 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.92 xG and OFI 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.788 / defence 1.533 | OFI attack 0.812 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.050. Lamia's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Lamia games / 26 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 26% | Draw 28% | OFI 45%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 2.22. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 60% | OFI 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 26% | Draw 28% | OFI 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamia 0.92 / OFI 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.788 / def 1.533 | OFI attack 0.812 / def 1.181 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: OFI (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.31
OFI xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs OFI kick off?
Lamia vs OFI kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs OFI?
Lamia 1 - 2 OFI.
Where is Lamia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs OFI part of?
Lamia vs OFI is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 26% chance of winning, OFI a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamia and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
Record (2 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 1 | OFI 0W.
What form are Lamia and OFI in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. OFI (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.79) and OFI's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.81x) against Lamia's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
26%
3.82
28%
3.51
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.23
1.31
OFI xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lamia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Lamia and 1.31 for OFI, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 5W 6D 16L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI's form line: 9W 10D 8L from 27 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.69 PPG from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
On the road, OFI have gone 4W 5D 4L from 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and OFI in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 5W 6D 16L in their last 27 games (0.78 PPG), while OFI have gone 9W 10D 8L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.69 PPG; OFI away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Lamia or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, OFI in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, OFI have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 62%, OFI 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lamia) and 46% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 38%; Lamia have failed to score in 38% of games; OFI in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lamia's recent matches and 38% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lamia's recent games and 46% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and OFI tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, OFI in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Lamia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Lamia 1-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.92 xG and OFI 1.31 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.79 / defence 1.53 against OFI attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 26% | Draw 28% | OFI 45%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 48%, OFI 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.