Lamia 0-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 37%, yet in-form Atromitos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamia vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Lamia (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Atromitos are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lamia, 1 for Atromitos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2022, ended 1–3 with Atromitos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lamia — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Atromitos — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 44% versus Atromitos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 47% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.19 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.825 / defence 1.452 | Atromitos attack 0.763 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.050. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Lamia games / 26 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 37% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Atromitos 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atromitos (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 50% | Atromitos 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 37% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lamia 1.19 / Atromitos 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.825 / def 1.452 | Atromitos attack 0.763 / def 1.467 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Lamia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Atromitos xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Atromitos kick off?
Lamia vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Lamia 0 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Lamia vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Atromitos part of?
Lamia vs Atromitos is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 37% chance of winning, Atromitos a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lamia and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
Record (2 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lamia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.76x) against Lamia's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
37%
2.73
28%
3.56
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.36
1.16
Atromitos xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Lamia and 1.16 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamia's recent record stands at 6W 7D 19L from 32 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 16L across 32 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.78 PPG for Lamia against 1.00 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 2W 3D 10L from 15 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.03 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Atromitos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 6W 7D 19L in their last 32 games (0.78 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.60 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Atromitos have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 60%, Atromitos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lamia) and 53% (Atromitos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 40% of games; Atromitos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Lamia's recent matches and 47% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lamia's matches and 53% of Atromitos's.
Do Lamia and Atromitos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lamia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 7, as Lamia and Atromitos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.19 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.82 / defence 1.45 against Atromitos attack 0.76 / defence 1.47, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 37% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 35%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 47%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.78 PPG, Atromitos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.