Kifisia 1-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kifisia host Olympiakos Piraeus at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kifisia — All Games: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.50 PPG return is 1.17 points per game ahead of Kifisia's 1.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kifisia, 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kifisia 89% and Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 67% | Olympiakos Piraeus 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.927 / defence 1.316 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.114 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.241. Data: 9 Kifisia games / 35 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 22% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.85. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kifisia 75% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 22% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Kifisia 1.10 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.927 / def 1.316 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.114 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Kifisia 1 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 22% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (2 meetings): Kifisia 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2W.
What form are Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Kifisia (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kifisia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
22%
4.47
24%
4.20
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.92
1.82
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
4%
27.59
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.82 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Kifisia have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 3D 3L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 7W 1D 1L from 9 games, 2.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kifisia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kifisia have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Olympiakos Piraeus's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kifisia are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.22 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.00 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Kifisia or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kifisia have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kifisia's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Kifisia
1
Draws
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 4 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 75%, Olympiakos Piraeus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kifisia) and 25% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kifisia's games and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kifisia vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kifisia's recent games and 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Kifisia 1-3 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.93 / defence 1.32 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.11 / defence 0.81, drawn from 9/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 22% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 67%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Kifisia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.