Ionikos 1-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ionikos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ionikos host Volos NFC at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ionikos — All Games: 2W 2D 3L from 7 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.14 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ionikos at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 4W 1D 2L from 7 outings — 1.86 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.29 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.14 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Volos NFC — 0.72 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.86 vs 1.14). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 29% versus Volos NFC 86%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ionikos 43% | Volos NFC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.51 xG and Volos NFC 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.819 / defence 1.071 | Volos NFC attack 1.322 / defence 1.688. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.170. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.688 — this is suppressing Ionikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Volos NFC have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Ionikos games / 7 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 33% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 39%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Volos NFC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 33% | Volos NFC 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 33% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Ionikos 1.51 / Volos NFC 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.819 / def 1.071 | Volos NFC attack 1.322 / def 1.688 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Volos NFC xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Ionikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Ionikos 1 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Ionikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Ionikos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 33% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ionikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ionikos and Volos NFC in?
Ionikos (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 2.14 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ionikos's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.53
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Ionikos xG
Total xG
3.17
1.66
Volos NFC xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.66 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Ionikos have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 2W 2D 3L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC's form line: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Volos NFC are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ionikos have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Volos NFC's season.
The Goals Picture
Ionikos are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 2.29 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ionikos have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Volos NFC in 86%.
Defensively: Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Ionikos's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.33 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ionikos or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ionikos and Volos NFC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ionikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ionikos
3
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Volos NFC?
From 5 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 0, Volos NFC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2023, when Ionikos 0-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ionikos see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ionikos at 33%, Volos NFC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Ionikos and 100% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ionikos keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Ionikos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Ionikos's games and 100% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ionikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Ionikos's matches and 100% of Volos NFC's.
Do Ionikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos and Volos NFC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 8, as Ionikos and Volos NFC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.51 xG and Volos NFC 1.66 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Volos NFC attack 1.32 / defence 1.69, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 33% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 39%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 43%, Volos NFC 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.