Atromitos 1-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs PAS Giannina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atromitos and PAS Giannina meet at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atromitos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's home record at Stadio Peristeriou: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Atromitos's favour (1.10 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Atromitos 1W, PAS Giannina 0W, 4D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 56% versus PAS Giannina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 33% | PAS Giannina 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.49 xG and PAS Giannina 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.871 / defence 1.036 | PAS Giannina attack 0.926 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.108. Data: 38 Atromitos games / 38 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 44% | Draw 31% | PAS Giannina 25%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | PAS Giannina 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | PAS Giannina 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 44% | Draw 31% | PAS Giannina 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Atromitos 1.49 / PAS Giannina 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.871 / def 1.036 | PAS Giannina attack 0.926 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.06
PAS Giannina xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Atromitos 1 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Atromitos vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 44% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Record (5 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 4 | PAS Giannina 0W.
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. PAS Giannina (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atromitos's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.93x) against Atromitos's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.24
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.55
1.06
PAS Giannina xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.06 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atromitos come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 16D 18L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 0.91 PPG from 45 outings (8W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Atromitos against 0.91 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atromitos's home form reads 8W 9D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (2W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atromitos are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.98 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 8W 17D 20L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Atromitos's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.57 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
0
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Atromitos 3-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAS Giannina?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 48%, PAS Giannina 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for Atromitos and 48% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 29% of games; PAS Giannina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play PAS Giannina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Atromitos's games and 67% of PAS Giannina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Atromitos's recent games and 48% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and PAS Giannina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and PAS Giannina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.49 xG and PAS Giannina 1.06 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against PAS Giannina attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 44% | Draw 31% | PAS Giannina 25%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 33%, PAS Giannina 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.09 PPG, PAS Giannina 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.