Atromitos 2-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees PAOK travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 6L from 9 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 0W 1D 3L this season (4 games, 0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 6W 1D 2L from 9 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.11 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.22 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK away from home this season: 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 2.11 PPG return is 1.78 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Atromitos trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
PAOK trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 44% versus PAOK 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 56% | PAOK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.86 xG and PAOK 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.770 / defence 1.409 | PAOK attack 1.175 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.249. Atromitos's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Atromitos games / 9 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 13% | Draw 23% | PAOK 64%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | PAOK 1.56. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 75% | PAOK 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 13% | Draw 23% | PAOK 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Atromitos 0.86 / PAOK 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.770 / def 1.409 | PAOK attack 1.175 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: PAOK (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
2.07
PAOK xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs PAOK kick off?
Atromitos vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Atromitos 2 - 0 PAOK.
Where is Atromitos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs PAOK part of?
Atromitos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 13% chance of winning, PAOK a 64% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atromitos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in?
Atromitos (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.77x the league average against PAOK's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
13%
7.43
23%
4.42
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.93
2.07
PAOK xG
7.43
13%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
13%
7.89
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
2%
58.69
27%
3.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Atromitos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Atromitos and 2.07 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 0W 3D 6L from 9 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 2L across 9 games — 2.11 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 3W 0D 1L across 4 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while PAOK have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.25 PPG; PAOK away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2024, when PAOK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
1
Draws
7
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, PAOK have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Atromitos 2-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Atromitos at 75%, PAOK at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Atromitos and 100% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Atromitos's games and 100% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Atromitos's matches and 100% of PAOK's.
Do Atromitos and PAOK tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PAOK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat PAOK 2-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.86 xG and PAOK 2.07 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAOK landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.77 / defence 1.41 against PAOK attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 13% | Draw 23% | PAOK 64%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Atromitos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 56%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
PAOK's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Atromitos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.