Atromitos 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Atromitos against 1.40 for OFI. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 45% versus OFI 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 52% | OFI 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.26 xG and OFI 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.086 / defence 1.349 | OFI attack 0.814 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.050. Data: 26 Atromitos games / 26 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 39% | Draw 28% | OFI 33%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 40% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 39% | Draw 28% | OFI 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Atromitos 1.26 / OFI 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.086 / def 1.349 | OFI attack 0.814 / def 1.180 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.15
OFI xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs OFI kick off?
Atromitos vs OFI kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Atromitos 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Atromitos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs OFI part of?
Atromitos vs OFI is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 39% chance of winning, OFI a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atromitos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and OFI in?
Atromitos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.09x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.81x) against Atromitos's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.62
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.42
1.15
OFI xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.15 for OFI, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atromitos's recent record stands at 8W 6D 15L from 29 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 9L across 29 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Atromitos against 1.38 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 6W 2D 6L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 5W 5D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and OFI in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 8W 6D 15L in their last 29 games (1.03 PPG), while OFI have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or OFI away?
Atromitos's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.43 PPG; OFI away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Atromitos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, OFI in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, OFI 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atromitos) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 36%; Atromitos have failed to score in 29% of games; OFI in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atromitos's recent matches and 43% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atromitos's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and OFI tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, OFI in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and OFI finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.26 xG and OFI 1.15 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.09 / defence 1.35 against OFI attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 39% | Draw 28% | OFI 33%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 52%, OFI 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.03 PPG, OFI 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.