Atromitos 2-3 OFI – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Atromitos take on OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Peristeriou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Atromitos are significantly better at Stadio Peristeriou than their overall form suggests.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. OFI are 0.60 PPG clear of Atromitos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 48% versus OFI 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 35% | OFI 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.00 xG and OFI 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.840 / defence 0.930 | OFI attack 1.198 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Data: 52 Atromitos games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 28% | Draw 38% | OFI 34%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | OFI 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 30% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 28% | Draw 38% | OFI 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Atromitos 1.00 / OFI 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.840 / def 0.930 | OFI attack 1.198 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.11
OFI xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs OFI kick off?
Atromitos vs OFI kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Atromitos 2 - 3 OFI.
Where is Atromitos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs OFI part of?
Atromitos vs OFI is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 28% chance of winning, OFI a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atromitos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and OFI in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.84x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (1.20x) against Atromitos's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.55
38%
2.64
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.11
1.11
OFI xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atromitos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.11 for OFI, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atromitos's recent record stands at 16W 19D 28L from 63 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 19W 21D 23L across 63 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Atromitos against 1.24 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 12W 9D 9L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.11 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and OFI in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 16W 19D 28L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while OFI have gone 19W 21D 23L in their last 63 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or OFI away?
Atromitos's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.50 PPG; OFI away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Atromitos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, OFI in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 43%, OFI 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Atromitos) and 47% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 33%; Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games; OFI in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Atromitos's recent matches and 43% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Atromitos's recent games and 47% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and OFI tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, OFI in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Atromitos 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Atromitos 2-3 at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.00 xG and OFI 1.11 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against OFI attack 1.20 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 28% | Draw 38% | OFI 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 35%, OFI 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.06 PPG, OFI 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.