Atromitos vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Levadiakos travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos's home record at Peristeri Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atromitos 1.50 PPG, Levadiakos 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Atromitos, 2 for Levadiakos and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 47% versus Levadiakos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 56% | Levadiakos 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.75 xG and Levadiakos 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.933 / defence 1.139 | Levadiakos attack 0.913 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Atromitos games / 28 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 52% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 21%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Levadiakos 4.76. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 70% | Levadiakos 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 52% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Atromitos 1.75 / Levadiakos 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.933 / def 1.139 | Levadiakos attack 0.913 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Levadiakos xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Peristeri Stadium.
Where is Atromitos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Levadiakos part of?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 52% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Atromitos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Record (7 meetings): Atromitos 3W | Draws 2 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.93) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.68
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.79
1.04
Levadiakos xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
27.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.04 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 11W 9D 14L from 34 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 12L across 34 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.24 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.85 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Levadiakos away?
Atromitos's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.18 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atromitos
2
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Levadiakos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 53%, Levadiakos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Atromitos and 65% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 29% of games; Levadiakos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Atromitos's recent matches and 47% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Atromitos's matches and 65% of Levadiakos's.
Do Atromitos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.