Atromitos 2-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Atromitos take on Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Asteras Tripolis travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 November 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atromitos 0.90 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 48% versus Asteras Tripolis 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 46% | Asteras Tripolis 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.11 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.830 / defence 0.931 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.983 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.087. Data: 37 Atromitos games / 37 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 34% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 28%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Asteras Tripolis 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 40% | Asteras Tripolis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 34% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Atromitos 1.11 / Asteras Tripolis 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.830 / def 0.931 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.983 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Asteras Tripolis xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Atromitos 2 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 34% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.83) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
38%
2.64
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.11
0.99
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.99 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 12D 21L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 12W 15D 17L from 44 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.02 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 9D 9L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.98 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 11W 12D 21L in their last 44 games (1.02 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Atromitos's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.36 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2025, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
0
Draws
6
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 4-2 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, Asteras Tripolis 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Atromitos) and 32% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 36%; Atromitos have failed to score in 36% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atromitos's recent matches and 46% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Atromitos's recent games and 32% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Asteras Tripolis 2-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.11 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.99 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 34% | Draw 38% | Asteras Tripolis 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Atromitos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, Asteras Tripolis 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.02 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.