Atromitos 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atromitos at 1.10 PPG versus Aris Thessalonikis's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 49% versus Aris Thessalonikis 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 46% | Aris Thessalonikis 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.21 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.953 / defence 0.991 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.843 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.155. Data: 36 Atromitos games / 36 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 38% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 26%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 38% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Atromitos 1.21 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.953 / def 0.991 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.843 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Aris Thessalonikis xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Atromitos 0 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 38% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.95) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
38%
2.64
36%
2.75
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.17
0.96
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.96 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 11W 11D 21L from 43 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 13L across 43 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 10W 2D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.14 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 9D 13L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.38 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
4
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 52%, Aris Thessalonikis 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atromitos) and 33% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atromitos's recent matches and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atromitos's recent games and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atromitos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 11, as Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.21 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 38% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 26%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, Aris Thessalonikis 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.