Atromitos 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atromitos at 1.20 PPG versus Aris Thessalonikis's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Atromitos, 1 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.94 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.792 / defence 1.103 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.927 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.275. Atromitos's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aris Thessalonikis's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Atromitos games / 48 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Atromitos 0.94 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.792 / def 1.103 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.927 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Aris Thessalonikis xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Atromitos 0 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 26% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (3 meetings): Atromitos 1W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.79) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
26%
3.92
31%
3.22
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.25
1.30
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.30 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 14W 19D 22L from 55 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 21L across 55 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.11 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 10W 12D 6L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.51 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 19D 22L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 10D 21L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Atromitos's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.50 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
4
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 46%, Aris Thessalonikis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Atromitos and 43% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%; Atromitos have failed to score in 32% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Atromitos's recent matches and 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Atromitos's recent games and 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 0-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.94 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.30 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 26% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 36%, Aris Thessalonikis 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.11 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.