Atromitos 0-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees AEK Athens FC travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's home record at Stadio Peristeriou: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AEK Athens FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour AEK Athens FC, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Atromitos.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 0–5 with AEK Athens FC winning.
It is worth noting that AEK Athens FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 60% versus AEK Athens FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 50% | AEK Athens FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.05 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.111 / defence 1.231 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.799 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.198. Data: 35 Atromitos games / 35 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 31% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | AEK Athens FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Atromitos 80% | AEK Athens FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 31% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Atromitos 1.05 / AEK Athens FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.111 / def 1.231 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.799 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.18
AEK Athens FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Atromitos 0 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 31% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Atromitos and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and AEK Athens FC?
Record (6 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 6W.
What form are Atromitos and AEK Athens FC in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (1.11) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
31%
3.24
32%
3.11
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.23
1.18
AEK Athens FC xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Atromitos and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.18 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 10W 15D 17L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 26W 10D 6L from 42 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atromitos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 9W 6D 6L from 21 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AEK Athens FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.07 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 10W 15D 17L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 26W 10D 6L in their last 42 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.19 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Atromitos or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
1
Draws
9
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Atromitos 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 62%, AEK Athens FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atromitos) and 62% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play AEK Athens FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Atromitos's games and 52% of AEK Athens FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Atromitos's recent games and 62% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Atromitos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Atromitos 0-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.05 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.11 / defence 1.23 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.86, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 31% | Draw 32% | AEK Athens FC 37%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 50%, AEK Athens FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.