Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos meet at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Asteras Tripolis have posted 3W 3D 4L at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Asteras Tripolis are significantly better at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Panetolikos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.10 for Panetolikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Asteras Tripolis lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 50% versus Panetolikos 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 50% | Panetolikos 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.89 xG and Panetolikos 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.240 / defence 1.082 | Panetolikos attack 0.751 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.245. Data: 36 Asteras Tripolis games / 36 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 22% | Panetolikos 20%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Panetolikos 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Asteras Tripolis 60% | Panetolikos 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 22% | Panetolikos 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.89 / Panetolikos 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.240 / def 1.082 | Panetolikos attack 0.751 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Panetolikos xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 58% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos?
Record (5 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 2W | Draws 2 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (1.24) and Panetolikos's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.75x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.50
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.90
1.01
Panetolikos xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
33.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.01 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 9D 19L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos's form line: 15W 10D 17L from 42 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.31 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 6W 8D 6L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.90 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Panetolikos in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Panetolikos away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.40 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, Panetolikos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 50%, Panetolikos 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Asteras Tripolis) and 20% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 40%; Panetolikos in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 35% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 20% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos finished level at 1-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.89 xG and Panetolikos 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.24 / defence 1.08 against Panetolikos attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 58% | Draw 22% | Panetolikos 20%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 50%, Panetolikos 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.21 PPG, Panetolikos 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.